The Picks

Whew. What a flurry of a month. August brought us a new house, along with all its responsibilities, and in the meantime I managed to study for the CPA exam, which I hopefully took the last of. With all the time I have now, hopefully I will be able to post a little more often. Of course, that may depend on the sucess of the 49ers, as we all know the Giants aren't giving me anything to write about.

So, without further adieu, here are my preseason picks for the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl. I'll also be posting my weekly picks, and keeping a running score (mostly for my own reasons, but maybe I'll gain your undying respect once I tally up a good record.

NFC West winner: *Niners. Now, as you can see, this comes with an asterisk. Everyone and their mother are giving the Niners a playoff spot because of the revamped defense, another year of experience under the belts of Smith, Gore, and Davis, and the additions of Jackson and Lelie. I agree, all these things will make them a much more competitive team, yet I'm not convinced they are more than a .500 team. I refuse to buy into the hype, not only because I don't want to get my hopes up too high, but also because we all know what happens to the media's "sleeper pick" every year (if you don't...see last year's Cardinals team). The main problem with the Niners, in my humble opinion, is that while Gore is certainly the best thing to happen to SF since Ricky Watters, everyone knows about it. If opposing teams do not line up 8 guys in the box 75% of the time, they need to find a new defensive coordinator. The key to beating the Niners is pressing Smith. If he is forced to make big plays and carry the team, I can't say they're better than .500. Having said that, I can't say they're any worse than the other teams in the division. Shawn Alexander is done, we all saw that last year. And Matt Hasselbeck isn't much better than Smith. I like the Niners to take this playoff spot, but only because of their competition in the division.

NFC East: Dallas. As much as it hurts me to say this, the rest of the division isn't that great, so I'm seeing Dallas taking the division. Assuming Romo's game matures and Owens's attitude matures, this team should be pretty good. However, they won't get too far in the playoffs with Wade Phillips manning the helm. He's way too timid to win a Super Bowl.

NFC North: Chicago. As little faith as I have in Grossman, it's been proven that defense wins games. And this is a damn good defense.

NFC South: New Orleans. Yeah, they got shellacked in their first game, but this is a team with a lot of talent. Their WR core leave much to be desired, but between Brees, Bush, and McAllister, I don't see how they can't win the division.

AFC East: New England. Do you really need an explanation? Have you seen how good this team is on paper? There is no way they shouldn't win the Super Bowl this year.

AFC North: Cincinatti. I'm not sold on the Ravens like most people. I love the addition of McGahee, and I think he's a 200% upgrade over Lewis, but McNair is too old, and they won too many games they shouldn't have last year. Cincinatti, on the other hand, fresh off of beating the guards at the state penitentary, will have a rebound year. Most of their success will depend on their defense limiting teams to 45 points a game, but I don't see why they can't take this division.

AFC South: Indy. This division sucks, plain and simple. Indy is the only competitive team, and if they can't pull out the division, it will be a shocker.

AFC West: San Diego. Great team with a decent regular-season coach. However, come playoff time, we all know Norv's success is pretty limited, and once again, the team with the best player in the NFL will be knocked out of the playoffs because its coach will be outsmarted.

Wild Cards: NFC: Atlanta & Detroit. Yeah I saved both my sleepers for the wild card, so what, wanna fight about it? Everyone's counting out Atlanta, and isn't that the definition of a sleeper? Read Bill Simmons's power rankings for a good explanation of why Atlanta catches his and my eyes. Also, I'm going to stick with Martz's offensive success, and I'm thinking if Kitna can get his INTs down and gel a bit with Calvin Johnson and the other 20 WRs they've drafted over the last few years, they'll be good enough to get to .500 or a game above. (Other suggestions: Carolina [which will be run by Carr no later than week 7, mark my words], and Washington)
Wild Cards: AFC: Denver & NY Jets. Denver always gets the job done, and the Jets showed they're a contender last year.

NFC Playoffs: Niners over Atlanta, New Orleans over Detroit, Chicago over New Orleans, Niners over Dallas, Niners over Chicago.
AFC Playoffs: NY over Cincinatti, Indy over Denver, New England over NY, Indy over San Diego, New England over Indy.

Super Bowl: New England over Niners.

Yeah, so I'm going to need you to forget what I said about the Niners earlier. They rock. But they aren't good enough to beat New England, Indy, or San Diego. Ah, the perks of being in the NFC.

On to this week's picks...

Broncos (-3) over Bills
Chiefs (+3) over Texans
Steelers (-4.5) over Browns
Redskins (-3) over Dolphins
Packers (+3) over Eagles
Titans (+6.5) over Jags
Patriots (-6.5) over Jets
Falcons (+3) over Vikings
Rams (-1) over Panthers
Bears (+6) over Chargers
Lions (+2) over Raiders
Seahawks (-6) over Bucs
Cowboys (-6) over Giants
Bengals (-2.5) over Ravens
Niners (-3) over Cardinals
New Orleans over Indy (since I posted this too late for this game, I'll go ahead and take the L even though I probably would have taken Indy, just so no one complains)